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    Week 12 Free Picks

    Updated: November 16th, 2011
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  • Cincinnati vs Rutgers under 47

    Cincinnati’s solid defensive line should be able to control the blocking of the young Rutgers offensive line. With Collaros out for the Bearcats, expect the fast Rutgers defense to gang tackle effectively.

     

    Wisconsin -14 over Illinois

    With star center Peter Konz out for the game, Wisconsin may rely a little more on the arm on QB Wilson which is just fine since Illinois’ secondary who although has put up some decent statistics, is not known to cover well. Illionis’ offensive line has failed all season to open up space for their backs and QB Scheelhaase. If Wisconsin can limit WR Jenkins catches like I think they will, the Illinois offense should sputter as usual. This bodes well for Wisky who has the best offense in the Big Ten. Last week at home, Illinois was soundly beaten by Michigan who played most of the second half without QB Robinson. Because of Konz’s injury, this game is being reduced to a 3 star selection.

     

    Vandy vs Tennesee over 44 1/2

    With Aaron Rodgers QB brother James improving, the Vandy offense has been scoring more points of late. The same cannot be said for the Vols who after losing QB Bray have struggled to score points. The good news for the Vols is that Bray is back at practice and although there are some doubts as to his readyness, with two wins needed for a Bowl Game, I don’t think Coach Dooley can afford not to play him. This should help spark an offense that has been dormant of late. And with the Vol secondary being very young and not the most athletic group at this point, the 44 1/2 looks low.

     

    Western Kentucky -3 over North Texas & under 47

    Western Kentucky has only 1 loss in conference by being able to run the ball and stop the run. North Texas will be without RB Lance Dunbar which should make running the ball against the Hilltoppers even more difficult forcing North Texas to throw without the advantage of play action. On offense, expect the Hilltoppers to ground out yards with RB Rainey, win the battle at the line and control the game with long methodical drives.

     

    Temple -13 over Army

    Temple has a very big offensive line which should be able to wear down the smaller Army front alllowing for the speedy backfield of Temple to make some big runs. Even if QB Steelman’s ankle improves and he starts, the athletic Temple linebacking group should be able to slow down the option attack of Army.

     

    Troy vs Florida Atlantic over 48 1/2

    Troy’s offense struggles against the better defenses because they have no running game to take pressure of their QB. They will get no pressure this week and should be able to put up plenty of points against an Owl defense that doesn’t provide much of a challenge to anyone. Troy’s defense tackles poorly and outside of DE Massaquoi, puts very little pressure on opposing offensive lines. This will allow the Owl offense to do enough to remain competitive in a game that features two really bad defenses.

     

    Virginia +17 1/2 over Florida State

    17 1/2 is a lot to give to an improving Cavalier team that has been solid at the point of attack. Florida State escaped last week vs Miami who was their first test in some time. Virginia is showing up to win this game and even if they fall short, I don’t think it will be competitive.

     

    Cal + 17 1/2 over Stanford

    Both teams know each other very well which usually equates to a closer game. Cal is pretty strong at stopping the run which should at least slow down the Cardinal attack. The Stanford team lost the Pac 12 and a possible chance at a national championship game after playing their buts in the loss vs Oregon. Cal is the big underdog and will come out full of energy in the annual grudge match.

     

    USC +14 1/2 over Oregon

    USC’s defense is faster than the Ducks faced last week at Stanford which is required when trying to slow down Thomas and James. The USC offensive line has been providing great pass protection allowing Barkley to hit Woods and Lee, two electric wide receivers who are impossible to cover 1 on 1. I expect USC to be competitive in this game and getting over two touchdowns is nice.

     

    Wyoming – 24 1/2 over New Mexico

    Wyoming is improving leaps and bounds each week. New Mexico got their first win in two years last week over UNLV and celebrated like they had just won the conference.I can’t blame them. Wyoming’s defensive line will dominate the Lobos and Wyoming will be able to score at will against the porous New Mexico defense. The Lobos have been crushed in every road game this year and this will be no different. Lay the points.

     

    Oklahoma and Baylor over 75 pts

    Oklahoma will have no problem throwing up big points against Baylor. That is a given. In the Texas Tech game, Oklahoma proved very vulnerable to deep passes as the corners do not look back at the ball. This will be a fast played game by both offenses and they might come close to breaking the century mark when all the scoring is done.

     

    Rutgers +3 over Cincinatti

    Rutgers has proven to be very formidable at home and have an excellent chance to join Cincinatti at the top of the Big East standings. Rutgers is quick and they are good against the pass. This should be a tight low scoring game and I like taking three points in this type of contest with the home dog. An outright victory is in th making.

     

    K State +8 over Texas

    Every time I think that K State is going to crummble they just play another solid game. With the exception of the Oklahoma game they have been terrific. Both teams were taken to the woodshed by Oklahoma and in my eyes these two teams are about even. Texas is missing both running backs and they are not a proficient passing team. K State is incredible on special teams and can make plays on defense as well. They can easily win so why not take 8 points.

     

  • JJBeatz

    JJBeatz

    John "JJBeatz" Jacobson is a handicapping analyst who covers the Big Ten, Sun Belt, MAC, Big East, Big 12 and Conference USA for www.collegefootballbreakdown.com. His nickname, "JJBeatz" was given to him by colleagues on Wall Street for his ability to make them money betting college football. JJBeatz is short for JJ beats the spread.

    John's passion for the sport of college football began when he played his first parlay card in elementary school. His fascination with making informative predictions allowed for a smooth transition into equity analysis and trading on Wall Street. As John often says, "Similar skills, such as money management, an analytical mind, hard work, an attention to detail, and perseverance, are needed in both trading and sports betting." JJ continues to work on his craft and loves to make people money.

    E-mail JJBeatz: jjbeatz@collegefootballbreakdown.com.

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