College Football Breakdown

Broncos travel to the Glass Bowl

Line: Toledo -12 Total 68 1/2

Toledo is hoping for a better outcome this week compared to last Tuesday’s 63-60 loss to Northern Illinois. Western Michigan comes to town looking to get back in the race after what has been a disappointing season for a team that was expected to battle Northern Illinois and Toledo for the division title. The problem that Western Michigan has faced this year is a lack of an established running game and the lack of performance by the defensive line that was supposed to be the best in the conference. Toledo was stung last week by Northern Illinois who now has the tie-breaker over Toledo if both teams finish win 1 loss. Western Michigan has 2 losses but a win over Toledo would put them in second place by having the tie-breakers over Ball State and Toledo. So there is clearly incentive on both sides this Tuesday.
Western Michigan ranks last in the conference in rushing defense giving up an astonishing 6 yards per carry inside the conference. Toledo who averages almost 240 yards per carry in conference games should be able to control the ball on the ground and also put the Broncos defense in must-tackle situations on the perimeter with their short passing game. The Broncos offense is led by the play of QB Alex Carder who leads the MAC in passing. Toledo ranks next to last in pass defense in the MAC and has registered a modest 15 sacks on the season. It is interesting to note that these two teams rank 1st and 2nd inside the MAC in red zone scoring. Toledo’s record of 23 touchdowns in 25 red zone attempts is pretty amazing. The Broncos have scored 16 tds in 23 red zone efforts.
The weather is expected to be relatively warm and both teams should score points which is why the total is 68 1/2. The question is that coming of a game in where the Rockets gave up 63 points, will they simply go to the ground game, take the air out of the ball, keep Carder off the field and shorten the game to a victory. I think that will be their strategy in this one which is one of the only reasons not to press the over.

JJBeatz
www.collegefootballbreakdown.com