College Football Breakdown

2011 Big East Football Picks and Predictions: Cincinnati

Cincinatti-The Bearcats return 10 defensive starters and are in the second year of Butch Jones system so I am expecting great improvement. Butch Jones knows to put points up but his defense really struggled last year. When looking at last year’s performances, the team performed fine against the middle to weaker defensive teams but poorly against the better defenses in the Big East. Why? Because their offense could keep them in the games against the weaker defenses and avoided turnovers, that’s why. When the Bearcats struggled to move the ball or turned it over (-15 net turnovers), their weak defense was kept on the field too long. Although Cincinnati losses some talent (3 starters) on the offensive line, including 2nd Team Big East C Jason Kelce, with Sr. QB Zack Collaros who has great mobility and Sr. RB Isaiah Pead (1029 yards) returning, the offense should be able to move the ball against most Big East defense. One key loss from last year is Armon Binns who was an unstoppable wide receiver and a safety blanket for Collaros. The defense returns just about everyone including its top 11 tacklers and the entire secondary which is important because this was the area that performed the worst last year giving up a pass completion percentage of 64.9%. The defensive line has good size in the middle with Sr. Tackles Derek Wolfe and John Hughes who both weigh over 300 pounds. Running the ball against the Bearcuts should be difficult again this year (3.5 yards per carry last year) with these two plugging up holes in the middle. Cincinnati registered 27 sacks last year which is decent but it was not enough to stop passing games. With an extra year of experience for all in the secondary and an experienced line, passing yardage should be tougher to come by against the Bearcats. This is the area to watch the most. If Cincinnati can play better coverage, the overall team should have a much better year and could make a run at a Big East title. The last 3 games on the schedule are very winnable so if the Bearcats can get a win on the road against USF or Pittsburgh, they would have an excellent chance of having only one loss inside the conference. Of course, it does depend on the improvement of the secondary and improved ball security on offense which hurt the team last year.

Possible betting games:

October 1st Miami Oh-Last year the Bearcats beat up the Redhwaks 45-3. There will be an extra day to prepare because the Bearcats come off a Thursday night battle at NC State the prior week.
October 15th vs Louisville-The Bearcats beat the Cardinal on the road last year 35-28 and will have two weeks to prepare for this one at home. The Cardinals will be travelling for the second straight week although the Cardinals will put more emphasis on this conference game than the NC State.
By John “JJBeatz” Jacobson-Handicapping Analyst- www.collegefootballbreakdown.com